Dead Man Walking - PM Abe and the Road Ahead

The results of the Upper House elections in Japan that were held on July 29th are still being felt throughout the political establishment from Tokyo to the smallest village.

The results saw the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) capture 60 of the 121 seats contested. This is the most significant political change since 1955. Clearly Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his government were punished for not listening to the "pocket book" issues that concerned the average Japanese.

PM Abe had focused on constitutional reform - while issues ranging from the public pension system mismanagement of millions of premium payment records, the economic disparity between urban and rural areas and gaffes by Cabinet Ministers dominated both the media and the minds of voters.

He lost three Ministers in nine months, and his Health Minister who referred to women as "baby machines" is certainly going to be shown the exit door.

Rural Japan which has been the bedrock for the LDP, abandoned the party in part because of the agricultural policies of the government have failed to ensure steady incomes and have alienated farmers.

Former Prime Minister Koizumi promoted food imports and scarped a policy to shore up rice prices in favour of price competition. The DPJ's policy of having farmers grow their crops freely but subsidizing them for any drop in market prices that might occur is very appealing. The shift in the countryside has signaled that the LDP has lost its hard core supporters.

Prime Minister Abe is a "dead man walking." His party the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) enjoys a two-thirds majority in the Lower House, but with this election, he may find it very difficult to have his legislative agenda passed - putting contentious issues in the spotlight and anger voters.

There is no question that Japan is entering a very uncertain time, and although the knives will be out to have Abe step down - something he is refused to consider, it appears unlikely that there is any natural successor to take on the leadership of a weakened LDP.

The future of Japanese politics is volatile but one constant will remain, the political landscape will never be the same - business as usual is a thing of the past.

Whether Prime Minister Abe has truly heard the message from the Upper House elections, and whether he will have the time to respond effectively will depend on whether his colleagues in the LDP believe that they have no alternative at this point other than to stick with a leader who only nine months ago was in the high sixties in the popularity polls.

The first post-war leader has fallen faster than anyone could have predicted. His only salvation is that his party can not afford blood-letting at this point since there is no natural successor to him.