North Korea - The Hermit Kingdom Roars

When I was in university, I became fascinated with North Korea and their policy of self-reliance known as "juche".

My Graduate thesis was on North Korea and Mongolia within the Sino-Soviet schism in the mid-1970's. This reclusive Stalinist state also referred to as The Hermit Kingdom, where cell phones are banned, and women traffic police are used at intersections, in order to save electricity (no traffic lights), has been domined by two men - the late Kim ll Sung and his son Kim Jong Il.

North Korea is the only country where a dead man is the official Head of State - Kim ll Sung.

People have characterized the actions of his bouffant haired son who wears platform shoes as eccentric and dangerous. He is however, a very calculated individual, who is dependent on the one-million strong armed forces. The armed forces are his power base, and he is constantly surrounded by them. When he is seen in public it is always with military people.

The current crisis over the detonation of a nuclear device has not only significant implications for the North Korean regime but indeed for Northeast Asia and beyond.

One should not be surprised at the recent turn of events, given that the leaders in Pyongyang have continued to push for acceptance by the international community - especially from the United States.

The nuclear option certainly has got the attention of the international community, and Kim Jong Il actions reflect both his domestic agenda and his desire to force the American administration into direct talks with his regime. Currently the only talks that have occurred are through the six-party talks on nuclear proliferation and they have been ineffective.

North Korea views the actions of the United States as hostile, and they see their own actions as defending their homeland from an attack by a hostile aggressor. The regime's approach is based on American policy including their decision to test nuclear devises.

The United Nations has quickly condemned Pyongyang, but beyond that the question as to whether any substantial sanctions could or would be applied to them is dubious. Take for example Japan, which has called for tough economic sanctions against North Korea.

Trade between the two countries has been in steady decline for many years, and the number of North Korean ships visiting Japan has fallen in recent years as well. It might send a strong political message but not an economic one. Trade between the two countries has gone from 115 billion yen in 1985 to 21.4 billion yen in 2005, with exports accounting for 6.8 billion yen and imports of 14.5 billion yen.

The key to any sanctions is China, North Korea's communist ally, who itself has reacted with anger over regime's actions, even after it had warned them not to take such steps, fearing an escalation of the arms race both on the Korean peninsula and with Japan.

China which supplies up to 70 percent of the food and oil for North Korea is unlikely to support tough sanctions which could lead to the collapse of the regime and the specter of millions of Koreans flooding across the border.

Sanctions such as travel restrictions against the regime's leadership, or placing North Korea on the "Arms Control List" are practical.

At some point the fear that such nuclear technology could be exported to rouge states or non-state actors such as al-Qaida is something that the international community needs to be very concerned about. One of the chide exports of the North Koreans has been military technology.

Eventually, the United States may have no alternative but to engage directly with Kim Jong Il. Neither South Korea's "Sunshine Policy" of engagement, which is now in tatters, not the six-party talks, nor international pressure has produced the desired results of bringing North Korea into the community of nations.

All the while, states such as Iran are watching carefully as they plan their next move.